ISSN: 0034-8376
eISSN: 2564-8896

Dispersion of a new Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by Airlines in 2020: Temporal Estimates of the Outbreak in Mexico

Gustavo Cruz-Pacheco, Department of Mathematics and Mechanics, Instituto de Investigaciones en Matemáticas Aplicadas y en Sistemas (IIMAS), National University of Mexico (UNAM), Mexico City
José F. Bustamante-Castañeda, Graduate Program in Mathematical Sciences, UNAM, Mexico City
Jean Guy Caputo, Laboratory of Mathematics, Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Rouen Normandie, Saint-Etienne du Rouvray, France
María E. Jiménez- Corona, Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez, Mexico City
Samuel Ponce-de-León-Rosales, Programa Universitario de Investigación en Salud, UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico

Background: On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the SARSCoV-2 outbreak. Regardless of this measure, the new infection has spread to several countries around the world. Objective: We developed a method to study the dissemination of this infection by airline routes and provide estimations of the time of arrival of the outbreak to different cities. Methods: Using the Kermack and McKendrick model complemented with diffusion on a graph composed of nodes and edges, we made an analysis of COVID-19 dispersion to other cities by air travel. Results: The estimation was accurate in that it was possible to predict in the middle of February 2020 the arrival of the first outbreak in Mexico, which eventually occurred between March 20 and 30. This estimation was robust with respect to small changes in epidemiological parameters at the other nodes. Conclusions: The estimation of the time of arrival of the outbreak from its epicenter, allows for a time period to implement and strengthen preventive measures aimed at the general population as well as to strengthen hospital infrastructure and training of human resources. In the present study, this estimation was accurate, as observed from the real data of the beginning of the outbreak in Mexico City up to April 6, 2020.

Keywords: Outbreak. Coronavirus. SARS-CoV-2. COVID-19.